Energy States

The mining sector — NAICS 21, covering oil and gas extraction, coal, metal ore, and support activities — is the most volatile major sector in the American economy. Nationally, it grew from $171 billion to $363 billion in real terms since 1997, a 113% increase. But this national average conceals wild divergences between states that bet on energy.

Texas dominates utterly: its $197 billion in mining GDP represents 54% of the national total. North Dakota underwent the most dramatic transformation in American economic history. And Louisiana, once the second-largest energy state, saw its mining sector cut nearly in half. The energy economy rewards some states richly and punishes others without mercy.

Texas’s mining sector nearly tripled from $68 billion to $197 billion, driven by the Permian Basin shale revolution. The trajectory is anything but smooth: it plunged to $52 billion in 2000, surged to $135 billion by 2015, cratered again, then roared back to nearly $200 billion. This volatility defines the energy economy — feast and famine, with each cycle bigger than the last.

Oklahoma followed a similar but more modest path: $5.9 billion to $19.8 billion, peaking at $25.9 billion in 2019 before pulling back. New Mexico is the quiet winner, surging from $5.6 billion to $16.8 billion, with most of the growth coming after 2018 as the Permian Basin expanded into its southeastern corner.

In 1997, North Dakota’s entire mining sector was worth $556 million — less than a single mid-sized factory. The state was farm country, period. Then horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing unlocked the Bakken shale formation, and everything changed.

Mining GDP was still only $618 million in 2005. By 2010 it had quadrupled to $2.4 billion. By 2014 it reached $9.6 billion — a 17-fold increase in less than a decade. The oil price crash of 2015–16 slowed the boom but didn’t kill it. By 2024, North Dakota’s mining sector settled at $10.9 billion, making it 17.2% of the state’s entire economy. No other state underwent a transformation this dramatic in the 21st century.

The divergence is stark. Louisiana was the second-largest mining state in 1997 at $21.8 billion. By 2024 it had fallen to $11.7 billion — a 46% decline as offshore Gulf production declined and onshore fields depleted. Louisiana’s mining sector in 2024 is smaller than North Dakota’s, a state with one-sixth its population.

Wyoming tells a coal story. Its mining sector peaked at nearly $10 billion in the late 2000s when Powder River Basin coal was king. But coal’s decline left Wyoming’s mining GDP essentially flat over 27 years: $5.1 billion then, $5.5 billion now. Wyoming remains heavily energy-dependent (13.8% of GDP) but the sector isn’t growing.

Alaska is the clearest cautionary tale. It was the third-largest mining state in 1997 at $10.9 billion. Prudhoe Bay oil field depletion has been slow and relentless. Alaska’s mining GDP in 2024 ($8.6 billion) is 21% below where it started.

The surprise entrant is Pennsylvania. In 1997, mining was a negligible $2.8 billion, a relic of the old coal era. The Marcellus shale natural gas revolution changed that, pushing mining GDP to $11.8 billion by 2024 — a 316% increase that few predicted.

North Dakota is the most energy-dependent state in America. At 17.2% of GDP, a sustained oil price crash would be devastating. Alaska (15.3%), New Mexico (14.1%), and Wyoming (13.8%) are similarly exposed. Texas, despite being the absolute king of energy production, is actually more diversified at 8.8% — because its non-energy economy is so enormous.

The national average is just 1.6%. Mining is a giant in a handful of states and nearly invisible everywhere else. This geographic concentration means that energy policy — drilling permits, pipeline approvals, carbon regulations — has wildly asymmetric effects across the country.