Something shifted in the market's internal machinery over the past two months. The mega-cap tech stocks that dominated 2024 and early 2025 have quietly rotated into the lagging quadrant, while a different set of names—industrials, energy, healthcare—have taken the leadership baton. This isn't a one-week blip. It's a trend developing across sixty days of price action.
Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) strip away the noise of absolute returns to reveal where money is actually flowing. A stock can be "up" in absolute terms but losing ground relative to the market. That's the story with Microsoft right now: it's gained 2.9% over two months, but the S&P 500 is up 3.0%. That makes MSFT a laggard despite being green.
The framework measures two things: RS-Ratio (trend strength versus the market over 60 days) and RS-Momentum (the rate of change over 10 days). These create four quadrants that stocks rotate through in a clockwise pattern.
The Four Quadrants
The most striking finding: four of six mega-cap tech stocks currently sit in the Lagging quadrant. Microsoft (-13.1 RS-Ratio), Apple (-9.2), Salesforce (-9.0), and Nvidia (-4.4) are all underperforming the market with negative momentum. Only Google (+15.4, Leading) bucks the trend.
Energy and Industrials dominate the right side of the chart. Schlumberger (+21.7) leads all stocks with strong momentum still intact. Caterpillar (+13.3), Goldman Sachs (+17.2), and Walmart (+13.1) cluster nearby. These are the market's current leaders.
Four of six mega-cap tech stocks sit in the Lagging quadrant. The rotation is real and it's been building for sixty days.
Sector-Level Picture
Rolling up to sectors reveals the pattern more clearly. Technology has four stocks lagging, just one leading (Google). Industrials and Energy have three leaders each with none lagging. The rotation away from tech toward cyclicals is broad-based.
| Sector | Leading | Weakening | Lagging | Improving |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Energy | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Discretionary | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Healthcare | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financials | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Staples | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Technology | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
The Rotation Playbook
Stocks typically rotate clockwise through the quadrants: Leading → Weakening → Lagging → Improving → Leading. This creates a predictable playbook:
Weakening stocks (TSLA, JPM, WFC) often have 2-4 weeks before they fall into Lagging. Consider reducing positions or tightening stops. Tesla at +6.0 RS-Ratio but -3.6 momentum is a classic Weakening setup.
Improving stocks (AMD, AMZN, staples) are the next potential leaders. AMD at -7.4 RS-Ratio but +4.5 momentum is the strongest Improving signal in the dataset. Consumer staples broadly are in this quadrant—three of five names (PG, KO, PEP) show improving momentum.
Key Stock Positions
| Stock | RS-Ratio | RS-Momentum | Quadrant |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLB | +21.7 | +6.1 | Leading |
| GS | +17.2 | +1.0 | Leading |
| GOOGL | +15.4 | +3.7 | Leading |
| CAT | +13.3 | +4.5 | Leading |
| WMT | +13.1 | +5.5 | Leading |
| TSLA | +6.0 | -3.6 | Weakening |
| AMD | -7.4 | +4.5 | Improving |
| NVDA | -4.4 | -1.5 | Lagging |
| AAPL | -9.2 | -5.0 | Lagging |
| MSFT | -13.1 | -3.3 | Lagging |
What This Means for Portfolios
The data suggests a tactical tilt away from mega-cap tech toward cyclicals and value. This doesn't mean selling everything—Google remains a leader within tech. But the weight of evidence favors industrials (CAT, HON, DE), energy (SLB, XOM, CVX), and selective healthcare (MRK, JNJ).
Watch the Improving quadrant closely. AMD's momentum turn, if it continues, would signal tech beginning its recovery. The staples names (PG, KO, PEP) improving from a low base could indicate defensive rotation ahead.
The Bottom Line
- Leading now: Industrials (CAT, HON, DE), Energy (SLB, XOM), Healthcare (MRK, JNJ)
- Weakening: Tesla, regional banks (JPM, WFC)—reduce exposure
- Lagging: Mega-cap tech (MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, META)—underweight
- Improving: AMD, Amazon, consumer staples—watch for breakout
- Exception: Google (GOOGL) is the lone tech leader—maintain position